Britain needs to stop counting daily Covid infections as the country’s pandemic phase slowly fizzles out, a scientist claimed today.
Professor Paul Hunter, an infectious disease expert at the University of East Anglia, warned the numbers — which reflect the number of people testing positive every day — will ‘remain high for our lifetimes’.
He suggested the UK should start to care only about hospitalisation figures, which will peter out to ‘very low numbers’ in the next stage of the epidemic.
He said the coronavirus will never be eradicated. Instead, it will become endemic and circulate throughout the country for generations.
But that doesn’t mean Britain will necessarily have to resort to lockdowns to control the virus again in future.
Scientists believe the virus – called SARS-CoV-2 – will eventually morph into one that causes a common cold as immunity builds up over time.
Professor Hunter tweeted: ‘Case numbers have now levelled out and are increasing, though rather more slowly than previously.
‘But there is considerable variation across the country, with infections still generally falling in areas that have had a lot of cases in the past or have vaccine uptake.
‘As we move from an epidemic into a post-epidemic/endemic phase, we really need to start distinguishing between infection and cases who are ill.’
Professor Hunter added: ‘The first will remain high for our lifetimes, the second will diminish to very low numbers.’
Britain is ‘close’ to hitting herd immunity against Covid, Government adviser says
The UK may be within touching distance of finally reaching herd immunity against Covid, according to one of No10’s top scientific advisers.
Professor Mark Woolhouse, an epidemiologist at Edinburgh University, believes ‘we’re pretty close’ to hitting the key threshold.
But he warned the UK would ‘bounce around’ and dip below the marker throughout the winter, when another resurgence is expected.
Herd immunity refers to having such a high proportion of a population protected that a pathogen finds it difficult to spread.
But it’s not a simple ‘all-or-nothing’ concept, according to Professor Woolhouse, who sits on a modelling sub-committee of SAGE.
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Ditching daily statistics would be another step on the road to treating the virus like flu, which officials track in a weekly surveillance report.
The Government’s Covid dashboard – which gets updated every 24 hours – shows cases, which it defines as positive tests, are ticking upwards again.
Infections had dropped for two weeks, sparking hopes that the worst of the third wave was over before it had even really took off.
But last week they started to flatten off and over the weekend they started to increase again, in a sign that the outbreak could still get worse.
Brits can only get PCR tests if they have developed tell-tale symptoms, been in contact with an infected person, or been asked to by medics.
Meanwhile, one of the Government’s top advisers has claimed the UK may finally be within touching distance of herd immunity.
Professor Mark Woolhouse, an epidemiologist at Edinburgh University, believes the country is ‘pretty close’ to hitting the key threshold.
But he warned the UK would ‘bounce around’ and dip below the marker throughout the winter, when another resurgence is expected.
Herd immunity refers to having such a high proportion of a population protected that a pathogen finds it difficult to spread.
But because this protection can wane naturally over time, many experts believe achieving a true constant state of herd immunity will be impossible.
Scientists say this makes it even more important to get a vaccine because higher levels of immunity in the population still slow the spread.
And jabs will protect tens of thousands of vulnerable people from dying in future waves, as the virus gradually becomes endemic.
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