The number of people becoming ill with Covid every day in Britain has started to trend upwards, a surveillance study claimed today.
Data from the ZOE Covid symptom-tracking app shows daily cases fell two per cent in the week ending August 7, with infections hovering at around the 46,000 mark.
But the curve has now started to creep up again, mirroring a trend seen in the Government’s own figures.
Professor Tim Spector, an epidemiologist at Kings College London and lead scientist on the study, said it is too early to tell whether the levelling off of cases will turn into another spike.
He warned of a slight increase in cases in over-60s, saying it may be caused by ‘waning immunity’ among those vaccinated earlier in the year.
However, Professor Spector also admitted it reflects the return of normal life, saying the trend may be caused by ‘lots of young and old people mixing again at large gatherings like weddings’.
He said: ‘The decrease in cases that we saw last week appears to have faltered over the last few days, and we’re seeing signs of an uptick. However, it’s too early to say if this is a start of another steep increase like the one we saw in July.
‘While it’s reassuring to see loosened restrictions haven’t caused cases to sky rocket, it’s more difficult to predict the future.
‘Cases remain relatively low in the fully vaccinated group, which is a sign that vaccines are working and keeping the spread at bay.’
Meanwhile, separate data from NHS Test and Trace revealed the number of people testing positive for Covid fell five per cent to 179,748 over the week ending August 4.
Public Health England’s (PHE) weekly surveillance report revealed cases were ‘stable’ in the week ending August 8. PHE and NHS Test and Trace’s data lag slightly behind daily Covid numbers.
Up-to-date Department of Health statistics, based on the same data but released every day, suggest cases have started to tick up again this week.
Scientists remain confused by the true state of the UK’s third wave and are at odds as to what will happen over the next few weeks.
Professor Steven Riley, an infectious disease expert at Imperial College London and member of a SAGE subgroup, warned cases could start to pick up again in September when children return to school.
Data from the ZOE symptom study shows daily cases rose slightly in people who have had both vaccine doses in the week ending August 7, from 10,751 to 11,043 — 2.72 per cent. They also rose in people who have had one dose — 6,534 to 7,168 (up 9.7 per cent) — and only fell in unvaccinated people — 29,620 to 27,700 (down 6.5 per cent) — but this could be caused by the fact more people were given jabs across the weeks.
‹ Slide me ›
And Public Health England’s (PHE) weekly surveillance report revealed cases were ‘stable’ in the week ending August 8
The number of people falling ill with Covid every day fell slightly to 45,911 last week, a symptom-tracking study has revealed but experts warn they are ‘seeing sign of an uptick’
Separate data from NHS Test and Trace revealed the number of people testing positive for the virus fell five per cent to 179,748 over the week ending August 4
Pingdemic pain eases again: Alerts sent by NHS app and Test and Trace call handlers fall by 20% in a week
The number of people forced to self-isolate after being pinged by the app or contacted directly by NHS Test and Trace has fallen by 20 per cent, official figures show.
NHS data shows around 610,000 adults were told to stay at home by the app or Test and Trace in the week ending August 4, down from 759,000 the week before.
In total, 789,791 people were told to isolate during the week when people testing positive are included. The same person can be contacted via the app and call handlers or test positive themselves afterwards, so the number in isolation is likely to be lower.
Pings still made up around 40 per cent of all self-isolation alerts, with calls from Test and Trace making up 37 per cent and positive tests being 23 per cent.
It comes ahead of a change to the rules allowing people who have had two vaccine doses or under the age of 18 to avoid self-isolation if they come into contact with Covid from Monday.
Advertisement
The ZOE data, based on reports from more than one million Britons, shows daily symptomatic cases rose slightly in people who have had both vaccine doses, from 10,751 to 11,043 — 2.72 per cent.
They also rose in people who have had one dose — 6,534 to 7,168 (up 9.7 per cent).
Daily infections only fell among unvaccinated people — 29,620 to 27,700 (down 6.5 per cent).
But this doesn’t mean the current crop of jabs aren’t working, instead it reflects how most of the population have now had both doses.
Covid was most prevalent in Yorkshire and the Humber, where one in 72 were showing symptoms.
It was followed by London (one in 75), Northern Ireland (one in 76) and the North East (one in 81).
For comparison, only one in 224 people in Scotland had signs of the infection.
Professor Spector said: ‘The current picture reflects some level of normal life returning to the UK.
‘As a result we have lots of young and old people mixing again at large gatherings like weddings, which still carries risk with high case numbers and varying vaccination statuses between generations.
‘We’ve recently observed a slight increase in cases in the over 60s who were vaccinated some time ago.
‘This could be due to waning immunity and we’re keeping a close eye on the performance of vaccines over time.
‘The key to reducing spread is to stay at home if you have symptoms, however mild and whatever your age.
He added: ‘It’s also important to highlight that the data has an ever decreasing number of unvaccinated and partially vaccinated contributors as more people get their 2nd jab, so we are treating the data in these groups with caution.
‘As always we are working hard to keep up with the pace of this pandemic so the ZOE team is looking at our methods to make sure we’re as accurate as possible.’
Meanwhile, NHS Test and Trace figures revealed the number of people testing positive fell five percent in the week ending August 4 to 179,748.
It was down on the 189,710 recorded the week before and just over half the amount recorded during the apparent peak of the third wave in the week ending July 21 (308,647).
Infection rates in England have risen among all age groups except 10 to 19-year-olds, according to Public Health England’s weekly surveillance report data
Case rates have risen in all regions of England except the north-east. Yorkshire and the Humber has the highest rate, with 372.4 cases per 100,000 people in the seven days to August 8, up week-on-week from 359.7. The East Midlands has the second highest rate: 338.5, up from 312.7
Covid was most prevalent in Yorkshire and the Humber, where one in 72 were showing symptoms. It was followed by London (one in 75), Northern Ireland (one in 76) and the North East (one in 81)
The number of people pinged by the NHS Covid-19 app in England fell 20 per cent to 310,887 in the week ending August 4, down from 388,265 the week before
The drop-off in the number of venue check-ins using the app was similar during the week, falling 26 per cent from 2.3million to 1.7million
Pings made up around 40 per cent of all self-isolation alerts in the week ending August 4, with calls from Test and Trace making up 37 per cent and positive tests being 23 per cent
Vaccines have already prevented 84,000 Covid deaths and 23.4million infections, PHE says
The Covid vaccine rollout in England is estimated to have prevented more than 84,000 deaths, according to new figures from Public Health England.
PHE said on Thursday that 84,600 deaths and nearly 23.4million infections have been prevented as a result of the vaccination programme up to August 6.
Estimates of how many hospital admissions in England have been directly averted by the vaccine remain unchanged at 66,900.
The latest estimates for deaths and infections prevented as a result of the Covid-19 jabs rollout ‘show the vaccine programme’s remarkable impact on saving lives and reducing the spread of the virus’, said Dr Mary Ramsay, head of immunisations at Public Health England.
She said: ‘As cases have increased, the true scale of protection from the vaccine programme has become clear. Everyone that has come forward for their vaccine has played a part in this vital effort.
‘It’s important that people under 30 years of age continue to take up the offer of the vaccine. Infection rates are highest in this age group, and Covid-19 can be serious for some.’
Advertisement
Case rates have risen in all regions of England except the north-east, according to Public Health England’s weekly surveillance report.
Yorkshire and the Humber had the highest rate, with 372.4 cases per 100,000 people in the seven days to August 8, up week-on-week from 359.7.
South East England had the lowest rate: 255.0, up from 234.0. In the North East, the rate fell from 325.5 to 286.4.
Rates in England have also risen among all age groups except 10 to 19-year-olds, PHE said.
The highest rate was among 20- to 29-year-olds and lowest among over-80s.
Dr Yvonne Doyle, medical director for PHE, said: ‘Data suggests that Covid-19 cases are currently stable, although rates remain high across the country.
‘Vaccines are breaking the link between infections and serious illness, and on Monday the rules will change so that those who have been double jabbed for at least two weeks, or are under 18, don’t need to isolate if they are a close contact.
‘Even if you have had both doses, if you are a close contact you should still get a PCR test as soon as you can and consider wearing a face covering in enclosed spaces, and limiting contact with other people, especially with anyone who is clinically extremely vulnerable.’
She encouraged all eligible young people to get a jab ‘so you can take your next steps in life safely’.
Public Health England also claimed the vaccine rollout in England is estimated to have prevented more than 84,000 deaths.
The agency also said nearly 23.4million infections have been thwarted as a result of the vaccination programme.
Estimates of how many hospital admissions in England have been directly averted by the vaccine remain unchanged at 66,900.
Using lockdowns to control spread of Covid in future won’t be justified, SAGE adviser says
Blanket lockdowns can no longer be justified as a way to control Covid as Britain moves towards living with the virus, one of the Government’s top scientific advisers said today.
Professor Andrew Hayward, a University College London epidemiologist and SAGE member, said future restrictions to control outbreaks should ‘target the most vulnerable’, rather than involving disruptive restrictions imposed on everyone.
Covid restrictions came to an end in England last month and were eased in Scotland and Wales in the last few days, bringing an end social distancing laws and other rules.
Since Prime Minister Boris Johnson declared last month that it was time to learn to live with Covid, experts have hinted at what that may look like.
Yesterday, one of the country’s top coronavirus experts Sir Andrew Pollard said Brits who do not have symptoms should no longer take routine tests.
Sir Andrew, chairman of the UK’s Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation, told MPs swabs should only be offered if people are unwell to reduce the enormous disruption to daily life from mass testing, tracing and isolation.
And today, Professor Hayward said resorting to population-wide measures to control outbreaks will no longer be acceptable
Advertisement
The latest estimates for deaths and infections prevented as a result of the Covid jabs rollout ‘show the vaccine programme’s remarkable impact on saving lives and reducing the spread of the virus’, according to Dr Mary Ramsay, head of immunisations at Public Health England.
She said: ‘As cases have increased, the true scale of protection from the vaccine programme has become clear. Everyone that has come forward for their vaccine has played a part in this vital effort.
‘It’s important that people under 30 years of age continue to take up the offer of the vaccine. Infection rates are highest in this age group, and Covid can be serious for some.’
Despite the effect of vaccines in dampening deaths and hospitalisations, Imperial’s Professor Riley said he expects cases to start rising again when people start socialising indoors more in autumn.
Asked about how the pandemic could change in the coming months, he said: ‘I think it is possible that it stays stable or even declines through September and October but I don’t think that’s the most likely outcome.
‘Children not being in school, many people not going to the office to work, and it being very easy to socialise outside, those things are currently in our favour and will go against us as we move into September and October.
‘Even with the additional vaccination there is going to be a bit of upward pressure so I think there’s a reasonable chance that the prevalence will start to tick up again at some point during September.
Professor Riley added the recent fall in cases may have been caused by schools closing over summer and the end of the Euro 2020 championship, which had raised infections during the start of summer.
He said: ‘We’ve got lots of immunity in the population now, the vast majority of that is driven by vaccination.
‘But also that most recent peak that we saw was probably related to the Euros a little bit and the end of the school year.
‘Some data from the REACT study saw a very high rate of infections in men compared to women which is unusual, suggesting perhaps that social patterns of men had changed, and then also we saw very high levels of infection in school-aged children.’
Source link : https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9886839/Number-people-falling-ill-Covid-fell-2-week-symptom-tracking-study-shows.html
