New CDC forecast predicts COVID-19 deaths will decline to as few as 3,900 weekly fatalities by the first week of November

A new model from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) predicts COVID-19 deaths and hospitalizations will continue to decline over the next month.

Published on Wednesday, the ‘ensemble’ forecast combines 37 independent forecasts of coronavirus deaths over the next four weeks into one projection. 

The CDC projects that weekly Covid fatalities could fall to fewer than 4,000 by the week ending November 6.

Over the same time period, hospitalizations are predicted to drop to as few as 500 per week.

It comes as infections across the U.S. continue to decline and the fourth wave of the pandemic, fueled by the Delta variant, comes to an end. 

A new CDC ensemble forecast projects COVID-19 deaths and hospitalizations in the U.S. will continue to decline. Pictured: Bodies are moved to a refrigeration truck serving as a temporary morgue at Wyckoff Hospital in Brooklyn, New York, April 2020

The forecast predicts weekly deaths will fall to as low as 3,900 by the week ending November 6 from the current 12,100 per week (above)

On Wednesday, the U.S. recorded 3,054 virus-related deaths and a seven-day rolling average of 1,657, according to data from Johns Hopkins University.

This represents a 13 percent decrease from the 1,917 average deaths recorded on month ago.

The CDC expects this decline to continue into November.

According to the forecast, deaths are expect to decline over the next four week with between 3,900 and 13,100 new weekly deaths reported by by November 6, 2021, the third straight week of projected declines. 

Additionally, the forecast predicts a death toll of between 740,000 and 762,000 by the first week of November 

Currently, there have been more than 717,000 Covid deaths since the pandemic began, figures from Johns Hopkins show.

The hospitalization model, made from an ensemble of six independent forecasts, are also expected to drop.   

The CDC model suggests that between 500 new hospitalizations per week to 10,100 new hospitalizations per week will be reported by November 5, the fifth week of predicted declines.

As of Wednesday, 62,132 patients are currently hospitalized due to COVID-19, according to the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS).

It’s a drop of 33 percent from the 93,703 hospitalizations recorded four weeks ago.

Covid hospitalizations are also predicted to drop to as few as 500 new patients admitted per week, a fifth straight week of projected declines (above

The CDC’s model is not the only forecast that has predicted deaths will decline.

Another analysis, conducted by the COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub, which advises the CDC, was published last month and looked at different scenarios regarding the trajectory of the pandemic.

Researchers came up with four different scenarios depending on whether or not children between ages five and 11 are authorized to get vaccinated and whether or not a new variant starts spreading.

The model does not advocate for or against childhood vaccinations, but merely suggests they will begin occurring by fall 2021.

BEST CASE SCENARIO FOR DEATHS: Deaths are also projected to drop from 11,563 current weekly deaths, or 1,651 per day, to 415 weekly fatalities, or about 59 per day (above)

WORST CASE SCENARIO FOR DEATHS: Weekly deaths would also have a modest drop to 4,922, or 703 daily deaths by March 2022 (above) 

According to the model, this will result in weekly COVID-19 deaths declining to 415 weekly fatalities, or about 59 per day.

These are figures not seen since late March 2020, when states first began shutting down and implementing stay-at-home orders.

In the worst case scenario, in which children aren’t approved for vaccination and a new variant that is 1.5 times more transmissible starts circulating, cases and deaths would still decline – but not by as much.

The model predicts this scenario would led to weekly cases falling to 467,507, or 66,786 daily infections, and 4,922 weekly deaths, or 703 daily deaths by next spring.

These numbers are similar to levels that were seen during summer 2020, amid the second wave of the pandemic, and in April 2021, following the deadly third wave.