Coronavirus must be taken very seriously again or the UK will face ‘a bumpy ride over the next few months’, England’s deputy chief medical officer has warned after a ‘big change’ in infections.
Professor Jonathan Van-Tam said on Monday that the public had ‘relaxed too much’ over the summer.
He described the rising number of cases as a ‘great concern’, despite the Health Secretary insisting Britain’s outbreak is not out of control.
There were a further 2,948 lab-confirmed cases of coronavirus in the UK as of 9am on Monday, following the 2,988 reported on Sunday, which was the largest daily figure since May.
However, experts are not convinced that a second wave is happening, and say increasing numbers of cases could still be a result of more testing with a small increase in infections, but not a surge worth panicking about.
During March and April, when the outbreak was at its peak, rationed testing was only picking up a tiny proportion of the real number of cases because not enough tests were done.
Now, however, more than 150,000 tests are done per day and they are thought to be picking up a much greater proportion of cases.
So 3,000 cases per day now – likely a large proportion of the true cases – cannot be directly to 3,000 per day in March, when the same number was a much smaller proportion and there were considerably more unseen infections.
And Office for National Statistics data, which estimates how prevalent the virus is in the population in England, shows that cases declined at the start of the summer and have ‘levelled off’ since a small rise in August.
The ONS predicts that around 2,000 people are catching Covid-19 each day in England, a figure which has fallen dramatically during lockdown in May.
In its report last week the ONS said: ‘Evidence suggests that the incidence rate for England remains unchanged,’ referring to similar infection rates throughout August.
Professor Jonathan Van-Tam said on Monday that the public had ‘relaxed too much’ over the summer and described the rising number of cases were of ‘great concern’
Office for National Statistics data: There are now an estimated 2,000 new cases each day, on average – a figure that has fallen during August after a surge in July
ONS DATA SHOWS INFECTIONS HAVE FALLEN OVER SUMMER
Weekly data published by the Office for National Statistics suggests that coronavirus cases in England have declined over the summer.
The figures, based on mass testing done in random households around the country, are estimates of how many people are catching the virus each day. The estimates started high in May, during lockdown, then fell in June and July as lockdown ended.
There was a spike at the end of July but testing suggests cases have stablised.
Here are the ONS’s weekly estimates of new cases per day:
August-25: 2,000August-20: 2,200August-13: 2,400August-09: 3,800August-02: 3,700July-26: 4,200July-19: 2,800July-12: 1,700July-05: 1,700June-27: 3,600June-21: 3,100June-13: 3,800June-07: 4,500May-30: 5,600May-24: 7,700May-17: 8,700 Advertisement
‘We’ve been able to relax a bit over the summer,’ Professor Van-Tam said.
‘The disease levels have been really quite low in the UK through the summer but these latest figures really show us that much as people might like to say ‘oh well it’s gone away’ – this hasn’t gone away.
‘And if we’re not careful, if we don’t take this incredibly seriously from this point in we’re going to have a bumpy ride over the next few months.’
He said that the rise is ‘much more marked’ in the 17-21 age group, but noted there is a ‘more general and creeping geographic trend’ across the UK.
‘People have relaxed too much,’ Prof Van-Tam said. ‘Now is the time for us to re-engage and realise that this is a continuing threat to us.’
Although rising numbers of new cases have caused concern among the public and some scientists, experts are warning against comparing them to what happened earlier in the year.
Even though case numbers are high, the percentage of people testing positive for the disease is still dramatically lower than it was at the peak of the crisis.
When the disease was out of control in March and April, rationed testing meant that at times more than 40 per cent of test results were positive, but this has since plummeted to just 2.3 per cent in the community and 0.5 per cent in hospitals.
As more and more people get tested, the proportion of the tests that come back positive has stayed level, showing the current strategy is successfully finding more and more people who actually have the disease but that still only a small proportion of those suspected of having Covid-19 actually do.
Huge numbers of negative tests show that only small amounts of people who think they have Covid-19 actually do.
Eminent statistician Sir David Spiegelhalter told MailOnline that infection rates could ‘no longer give a simple answer’ about the virus’s trajectory. He admitted that a huge increase in testing was skewing the figures upwards, but he noted that the proportion of people testing positive was also rising very slowly, suggesting a mixture of more swabs in high risk areas and ‘some increase in infection risk’ was driving the case rate up.
Data from Public Health England shows that more than 40 per cent of coronavirus tests done in hospitals were positive in March and April but this has now plummeted and remains below 2.5 per cent in both hospitals and the community. This shows that there remains only a small proportion of people with the symptoms of coronavirus who actually have it
Scientists have previously said cases have risen over August as a result of increased testing (pictured, how testing has risen during the pandemic)
The current case rate – the number of people per 100,000 who test positive for Covid-19 – has risen since June and July as lockdown rules have loosened but is still only a fraction of what it was during the worst days of Britain’s crisis.
A surge in positive tests over the weekend pushed the rate to 21.3 per 100,000 for the past week, which is above Britain’s own holiday quarantine threshold.
HOW DOES TESTING AFFECT CASE NUMBERS?
If more people are being tested for Covid-19, this will show up in cases data, experts say. On the surface, it may look like a spike in infections, but broadly is not something to worry about because it just means more people are being diagnosed than before, when testing was limited to those in hospital.
Professor Kevin McConway, an emeritus professor of applied statistics, The Open University, said: ‘In the early stages of the pandemic, there was far less availability of testing in most countries than there now is. So one reason there are more cases is just that people have got better at looking for and finding them.’
And Dr Andrew Preston, a reader in microbial pathogenesis at University of Bath, said: Test more people, you will find more positives.
‘Initially, testing was restricted to those reporting symptoms, but this has eased and it’s now possible for a wider range of people to request tests.’
Testing capacity has rapidly increased over the course of the pandemic in order to reach more people. And this has caused a slight increase in the number of people getting a positive result – but not to levels that suggest prevalence of the virus is soaring.
A significantly higher number of people are being tested since July – when diagnosed cases were at their lowest, NHS Test and Trace data shows.
Some 442,392 people were tested between 13 August and 19 August – an almost 20 per cent increase on the 355,597 tested between July 9 and 15.
However, the positive result rate only slightly went up, from 1.12 per cent to 1.4 per cent in the same period. This shows there no that many more people testing positive compared to negative in August than in July.
Other data from Public Health England reveals a similar trend over the course of the pandemic.
Testing has increased vastly from no more than 13,000 tests per day at the start of April to around 150,000 in July.
During the same period, positive test results in Pillar 2 – which are those outside of hospitals and care homes – went drastically down from a peak of 5.2 per cent in May to 1.4 per cent in mid-July, showing that less people were testing positive for the coronavirus despite testing reaching thousands more people.
This figure has risen slightly over this month from 1.6 per cent to 2.1 per cent in the week ending August 23. But it’s a small increase when comparing with the 5 per cent seen in May. Testing has shot up to almost 200,000 per day this month.
Commenting on these figures, Dr Duncan Young, a professor of intensive care medicine at University of Oxford, told MailOnline: ‘It is therefore very possible that the increase in cases is mostly related to increased testing, but will a small additional effect from the increased prevalence.’
Despite this, it doesn’t necessarily rule out that transmission of the disease is, indeed, climbing.
Scientists admit that the evident rise in cases will be driven by more transmission in the community as a result of easing lockdown restrictions.
‘But the position isn’t like it was back in March and April,’ Professor McConway said.
‘The level of cases [in the UK] remains a very long way below what it was at the peak of the pandemic here in March and April.
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Once infections rise above 20 in 100,000 in other countries, the British Government begins seriously considering enforcing a quarantine period for holidaymakers returning from abroad.
Scientists say it was always inevitable that more tests would yield more cases, and that there would be a rise in infections when rules were lifted.
Professor Kevin McConway, a statistician at The Open University, said: ‘In the early stages of the pandemic, there was far less availability of testing in most countries than there now is. So one reason there are more cases is just that people have got better at looking for and finding them.’
The Office for National Statistics, in separate data, estimates around 28,000 people in England have the coronavirus at any one time and 2,000 people catch it per day. This estimate, based on random population testing, has not changed significantly for a number of weeks, suggesting surges in cases are localised.
Professor Van-Tam last night urged politicians and public health officials to think how to manage the crisis not in the short term but through ‘the next six months and how we get through this until the spring’.
The professor added that it was ‘clear’ that the level of compliance with restrictions ‘is very variable indeed’.
Health Secretary Matt Hancock welcomed the ‘important advice’ having earlier described the recent increase in cases as ‘concerning’.
Asked by LBC presenter Nick Ferrari if the UK had ‘lost control’, as suggested by some experts, Mr Hancock said: ‘No, but the whole country needs to follow social distancing.’
Professor John Edmunds, who is part of the Government’s Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies, warned that cases were ‘increasing exponentially’.
He said the UK has entered ‘a risky period’ with the average number of people an infected individual spreads the virus to, known as the reproduction number, potentially above the crucial figure of one.
‘I didn’t want us to relax measures so much that we couldn’t open the schools safely without it tipping the reproduction number significantly above one. And we are already above one and we’ve opened schools,’ he told ITV News.
As the UK continued attempts to quell regional outbreaks, people were told they cannot enter or leave Caerphilly without a reasonable excuse when new restrictions are imposed at 6pm on Tuesday.
Meetings with other people indoors will be banned and everyone over 11 will have to wear masks in shops, the first time the measure has been made mandatory in Wales.
The South Wales borough has seen 133 new Covid-19 cases over the past seven days, equivalent to a rate of 55.4 cases per 100,000 population, giving it one of the highest rates in the UK.
Meanwhile, restrictions on household visits across western parts of Scotland were extended for a further week and expanded to also include East Dunbartonshire and Renfrewshire.
The total of nearly 3,000 new cases across Britain was similar to the figure seen on Sunday, suggesting the ‘concerning’ high was not a one-off.
Health Secretary Mr Hancock tempered fears today and said cases were not out of control, while admitting cases were ‘concerning’ because ‘nobody wants a second wave’. He is pictured during the interview on LBC radio
Britain has confirmed almost 3,000 new cases of coronavirus for the second day in a row, suggesting yesterday’s ‘concerning’ high was not a one-off.
The surge in positive tests over the weekend has pushed the UK’s national infection rate to 21.3 per 100,000 for the past week. Once infections rise above 20 in 100,000 in other countries, the British Government begins seriously considering enforcing a quarantine period for holidaymakers returning from abroad.
It comes as Britain is today bringing in new rules dictating that people returning, from Wednesday, from seven islands in Greece – Lesvos, Tinos, Serifos, Mykonos, Crete, Santorini and Zakynthos (Zante) – will have to self-isolate for two weeks.
The surge in the past two days has also pushed the daily average to higher than 2,000 for the past week – to 2,032 – for the first time since May.
A graph shows how the number of coronavirus cases in England has differed by age, with a growing number confirmed among younger groups
Officials yesterday reported three more Covid-19 deaths, taking the total to 41,554. These are thought to all be in England, considering health agencies in Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland each reported zero deaths themselves.
The North and Midlands are seeing considerable hikes in cases, with Bolton, Leeds, Birmingham and Manchester seeing infection rates reaching levels seen in April – the peak of the crisis – May and June.
A group of council leaders in the North East have pleaded with people to stop having house parties because is it the ‘most dangerous’ thing to do amid the pandemic, while saying ‘selfish and reckless’ individuals were going out and meeting others before their test result had even returned.
Even though case numbers are high, the percentage of people testing positive for the disease is still dramatically lower than it was at the peak of the crisis. For this reason, experts say figures should not be compared to the height of the outbreak because so many more tests are being done now in comparison.
When the disease was out of control in March and April, rationed testing meant that at times more than 40 per cent of test results were positive, but this has since plummeted to just 2.3 per cent in the community and 0.5 per cent in hospitals.
Still, Mr Hancock pleaded with young people specifically, who make up the majority of new cases, to adhere to social distancing to avoid spreading the coronavirus to more at-risk groups. He warned: ‘Don’t kill your gran by catching coronavirus and then passing it on.’
Downing Street warned the ‘concerning’ number of cases would generally be expected to lead to a rise across the population as a whole.
The evidence may already be emerging in Scotland; First Minister Nicola Sturgeon said there is a ‘warning’ in the rise in Covid-19 hospital admissions – a possible indication cases are spreading to vulnerable people.
It comes as swathes of Britons headed back to work on Monday with traffic and public transport returning to pre-Covid levels.
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